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Culture & Politics » soc.culture.china » The real makeup for middle east conflit
| The real makeup for middle east conflit [message #228773] |
Mo, 24 Juli 2006 05:59 |
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Target Syria?
John Horvath 24.07.2006
Israel's possible ulterior motives
For those in the west following the war in Lebanon via the mainstream
media, it's quite clear who is to blame and why war broke out in the
first place. The Palestinian raid that captured an Israeli soldier is
seen by most as an inexplicable provocation. The US and its sidekicks
(including countries such as Hungary) are subsequently able to justify
Israel's over-reaction claiming that Israel has "the right to defend
itself" and by noting that all this happened in the wake of the Israeli
withdrawal from the area. Hence, the responsibility for this latest
escalation in violence rests squarely with Hamas and that an Israeli
military response was "inevitable".
This faulty line of reasoning is based on the erroneous assumption that
Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza strip last year somehow ended the
conflict in that area, as if there was some sort of defacto peace
agreement in place. The withdrawal, however, was nothing of the sort;
it was simply a tactical redeployment. The state of siege in the Gaza
strip remained, as subsequent events prove.
Over the past year (since the pullout and before the recent escalation
of violence), at least 144 Palestinians in Gaza had been killed by
Israeli forces, often by helicopter gunships, according to an Israeli
human rights group. Only 31 percent of the people killed were engaged
in hostile actions at the time of their deaths, and 25 percent of all
those killed were minors. During this same period, meanwhile, no
Israelis were killed by violence emanating from Gaza.
Aside from the captured soldiers both in Gaza and south Lebanon,
another reason for the military action by Israel is the supposed desire
to stop the Palestinians and Hezbollah from attacking Israel with
rockets. Yet although in the past year Palestinian militants launched
some 1,000 crude Kasam missiles from Gaza into Israel, not one fatality
resulted. At the same time, however, Israel fired 7,000 to 9,000 heavy
artillery shells into Gaza in where scores were killed and wounded.
In fact, just two weeks before the Hamas raid that killed two Israeli
soldiers and captured a third, an apparent Israeli missile strike
killed even members of a Palestinian family picnicking on a Gaza beach,
which prompted Hamas to end its 16-month-old informal ceasefire with
Israel. Hamas has repeatedly pointed to the Gaza beach incident as one
of the central events that prompted its cross-border raid. Hamas also
points to the capture of some of its leaders by Israel as the
provocation for its raid.
None of this is to say that Hamas does not share the blame for the
current crisis. But to view Israel as a peace-loving neighbor until the
soldier's capture is to ignore all that has been going on in the Gaza
strip and elsewhere over the past year.
Aside from the willful rewriting of very recent history, western
mainstream media outlets have also manipulated the semantics of what
had happened. The missing soldiers are often referred to as being
"kidnapped" as opposed to being captured. The former carries with it a
hint of criminality while the latter is often seen as a more neutral
act, which is common in conflict areas. Moreover, while much mention
has been made of the capture of the three Israeli soldiers, no mention
has been made of the capture or "kidnappings" of more than 9,000
Palestinians currently held by Israel -- including 342 juveniles and
over 700 held without trial.
Yet all this still doesn't fully explain why Israel would launch such a
massive military operation against Lebanon. Diplomatic efforts were
barely attempted; indeed, the quick mobilization of the Israeli army
was such that it appeared the military operation already had been
planned well in advance. Given the geo-political importance of the
region to George W. Bush's war on terror, the notion that the Israeli
attack against Lebanon is actually part of a much larger operation --
one which extends beyond Lebanon to include Syria and possibly Iran --
is not as far-fetched of an idea as it may seem.
It's no secret that after Iraq, Syria was next on the list of White
House targets for their grand re-ordering of the Middle East. The only
problem was that victory in Iraq has been much more elusive, and
without a stable Iraq (not to mention a lack of public support for
these military adventures), further military operations in the area
were out of the question.
Nevertheless, there's still a lot of hostility in the US against Syria.
As far as the White House is concerned, Syria is seen as the remaining
linchpin of terrorism that has to be fixed one way or the other. For
the White House, this means Syria has to either change its conduct
promptly or the US will have to do something about it, either through
diplomacy or economics -- even war, if necessary.
The Syria Accountability Act of 2003 was a first step in this
direction. As the preamble to the bill clearly spelled out, it intends
"to halt Syrian support for terrorism, end its occupation of Lebanon,
stop its development of weapons of mass destruction, cease its illegal
importation of Iraqi oil, and hold Syria accountable for its role in
the Middle East, and for other purposes."
In retrospect, the piecemeal implementation of this congressional bill
can be clearly seen over the years. Shortly after the fall of Saddam
Hussein, the US cut a pipeline to Syria which delivered some 200,000
barrels of oil a day. The cost of the severed pipeline is estimated at
$500 million to $1 billion dollars annually.
More recently, the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri
seemed to achieve the objective of forcing Syria to leave Lebanon. The
assassination of Hariri is still somewhat in dispute. Although most
countries point to Syrian officials as being behind the killing, some
point the finger at the US and Israel. There is no doubt that the
instability that resulted helped to put pressure on Syria to leave. Yet
even here media manipulation was key to formulating world opinion.
Although images of demonstrations in Lebanon against Syria were beamed
around the world, much larger demonstrations in support of Syria were
either downplayed or not covered at all. This is not to say that it
would not be a good thing if all foreign troops left Lebanon and let
the country to rebuild itself in peace. But the way in which peace and
democracy -- American style -- is being imposed on the region and
abroad (i.e., Iraq and Afghanistan) is clearly counterproductive.
Since the death of Hariri, Syria has been careful not to fall into any
traps which could be used by the US as an excuse for war. What has also
helped Syria to avoid conflict to date is the fact that the war in Iraq
hasn't been going as the US had planned. Another war on false pretenses
is something that both the American public and even the American
military are unwilling to support.
Thus, it appears the focus of this latest conflict doesn't seem so much
to be Lebanon as much as Syria, with the hope that the latter will
somehow get itself entangled in the conflict. Many pundits have already
been anticipating Syria's response, wondering whether it will move back
into Lebanon or not. For the war hawks in Washington, the ideal
situation would be that Syria moves back into Lebanon in order to come
to the defense of Hezbollah. This, in turn, would then involve the US
on the side of Israel and give George W. Bush an excuse for regime
change, instigated by Washington, naturally.
The likelihood of this happening, however, is small. Syria is most
probably aware of such machinations, and has no desire nor is any
position to start a war with Israel. This could all change, however, if
Israel for some reason attacks Syria.
What will most likely happen is after a few failed attempts at trying
to cripple Hezbollah, and with Syria staying within its own borders,
Israel will ultimately retreat to their own side of the border.
Ultimately, there will be a deal involving an exchange of prisoners,
akin to what happened in 2004. Then, Israel surrendered hundreds of
prisoners for one living Israeli soldier and the remains of three
others. With over 9,000 prisoners at its disposal, Israel has something
to bargain with.
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